Hungarians are going to the polls in large numbers, in a vote that could bring down Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years, and have significant repercussions for the rest of Europe, the US, and Russia.
Most polls favour Péter Magyar, who formed a grassroots party, Tisza, after splitting from the ruling Fidesz party. After voting in Budapest, he said that if he won, he would bolster Hungary’s position in the EU and NATO and fight corruption.
Orbán told reporters after casting his ballot, “I am here to win,” and, asked if he had underestimated his rival, said, “I don’t underestimate anyone”.
Voting takes place until 19:00 (17:00 GMT), and results will start to come through during the evening.
After five hours, a record 37.98% of the electorate had voted, a dramatic 12-point increase on four years ago and an indication that voters are far more mobilized this time around.
After 16 years of Orbán running Hungary with what the European Parliament termed a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”, Magyar and his Tisza party are promising “a change of regime,” a reset of relations with the European Union, and an end to close relations with Russia.
He attracted far more people to his final rally in the second city, Debrecen, than Orbán did in Budapest.
But Orbán remains highly valued by US President Donald Trump, who has called on Hungarians to “get out and vote” for his “true friend, fighter, and WINNER”.
Addressing supporters on Saturday night, the Fidesz leader insisted that victory was still within reach and stuck to his main campaign themes of targeting Brussels and Ukraine. “We don’t give our children, we don’t give our weapons, and we don’t give our money,” he said.
His message resonated with the crowd, who chanted “we won’t let that happen”.
One supporter, Johanna, said she backed his policies on protecting the family, particularly his stance on the war in Ukraine.
He has proved to be a winner four times in a row, but a fifth consecutive victory may be beyond his reach.
The economy is struggling, and he has been buffeted by a series of scandals, including revelations that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó regularly spoke to his Russian counterpart before and after European Union summits, which he has admitted.
Hungary is not just in the EU, it is in Nato too, but Orbán has vetoed €90bn (£78bn) in aid to Ukraine, angering his European partners.
Hungary’s three most reliable pollsters are all pointing to a “huge lead” for Magyar’s Tisza party, says election specialist Róbert László at Budapest think tank Political Capital. Most analysts had assumed Fidesz would reduce that lead as the election drew closer, but he says that has not happened.
Magyar has told voters they need not just an absolute majority of 100 seats in the 199-seat parliament, but a two-thirds supermajority, to wind back many of the constitutional changes that Fidesz made to the independence of the judiciary, media ownership, and many other areas of life. Hungary is repeatedly at the bottom of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index in the EU.
“The most likely scenario is that Tisza will have a comfortable, absolute majority, but not a two-thirds majority. But you can’t exclude a two-thirds majority either,” says László.
