Senegal is confronting a political and economic reckoning after the International Monetary Fund confirmed that more than $11 billion in public debt went unreported under the previous administration.
Meanwhile, Côte d’Ivoire has clinched a staff-level IMF deal worth $843.9 million to advance fiscal reforms and climate resilience.
Senegal’s debt exposure has soared to 132% of GDP, according to IMF estimates at the end of 2024 – a dramatic rise from previously reported levels.
That figure, revealed following a thorough audit by the national Court of Auditors, has raised serious questions about governance, transparency and fiscal sustainability.
IMF Mission Chief Edward Gemayel, who led the institution’s most recent delegation to Dakar, said Wednesday that the discussions were “constructive,” noting strong commitment from the Senegalese authorities to improve debt management and reinforce governance.
However, he warned that “significant efforts will be needed” to address the vulnerabilities exposed by the audit.
The revelations followed a Court of Auditors report published in early 2025 that highlighted an “average fiscal deficit … revised upward by 5.6 percentage points of GDP” between 2019–2023.
The IMF staff backed this assessment and urged reforms, including “streamlining tax exemptions and phasing out costly, untargeted energy subsidies.”
Risking restructure or re-profiling
Investors are watching closely. Senegal now faces a critical decision: debt restructuring or re-profiling. A restructure could reduce principal or interest, but Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko called that option “a disgrace”, rejecting it outright.
Instead, officials say they prefer to step up tax collection and debt management operations. The IMF’s Gemayel, however, cautioned that projected tax revenues may be overly optimistic, recommending more conservative estimates to preserve essential investment.
Senegal’s international bond yields have surged, reflecting investor anxiety. The country has previously tapped Eurobond markets — but with debt dynamics shifting so sharply, future access may become more costly or constrained.
Across the border, Côte d’Ivoire is celebrating a significant macroeconomic win. The IMF has approved a US$843.9 million disbursement, split between its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for macroeconomic support, and a Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) tranche dedicated to climate reform.
According to the IMF, Côte d’Ivoire met all its end-2024 performance criteria and structural benchmarks, signalling strong implementation of reform measures. The country’s fiscal deficit shrank to 4.0% of GDP in 2024 from 5.2% in 2023, with expectations to hit the WAEMU ceiling of 3% in 2025.
Economists have praised the deal as a strategic balancing act. The EFF/ECF funding will shore up macro stability, while the RSF portion supports climate resilience — a critical priority for West African coastal economies.
Bigger picture: fragile reform, fragile region
Senegal’s crisis underscores a broader risk across francophone Africa: data misreporting and hidden liabilities. The IMF has repeatedly called for tighter debt transparency and stronger institutional frameworks. Without a resolution — either through restructuring or realistic projections — Senegal risks eroding investor trust.
In Côte d’Ivoire’s case, the IMF deal reflects a different trajectory: a country leveraging reform momentum to channel funds into both growth and resilience. However, even here, the challenge lies in maintaining fiscal discipline while scaling climate-friendly investments in an uneven economic landscape.
For the IMF, both cases represent a high-stakes balancing act: support reform while enforcing accountability. For governments, it is a test of credibility. For investors, it is a crucible of risk and opportunity.
