Surging global cobalt demand is colliding with fragile supply chains, deadly artisanal mining conditions, and mounting geopolitical risks centred on the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Rising demand for cobalt is projected to exceed 220,000 metric tons by 2026, driven by electric vehicles, AI hardware, and grid-scale batteries.
But more than 70% of the world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo – a dominance increasingly burdened by tragedy, weak regulation, and geopolitical fault lines.
A deadly collapse last weekend at Kolwezi’s Mulondo quarry killed more than 34 artisanal miners, days after the country celebrated its first 1,000 metric tons of traceable artisanal cobalt shipped by the state-owned Entreprise Générale du Cobalt (EGC).
The incident, now under provincial investigation, has renewed scrutiny of a sector that accounts for 15–30% of national output yet remains effectively unregulated.
EGC’s pilot shipment, developed with Gécamines and monitored by international traceability systems, signals progress. But the juxtaposition with the Kolwezi tragedy highlights the profound governance gap still impeding ethical sourcing.
Structural risks and supply chain strains
Simon Tuma Waku, former CEO of the DRC Chamber of Mines, told Allen Dreyfus that logistics bottlenecks and insecurity continue to undermine value.
“Truck transport to export ports takes far too long, especially due to delays at Kasumbalesa border and rising insecurity from theft of trucks and cathodes.”
He said recent quota rules have boosted prices but split producers into two camps – vertically integrated giants like Tenke Fungurume Mining, which benefit from higher battery prices, and non-integrated miners reliant on cobalt revenues.
Because cobalt occurs alongside copper, producers cannot reduce cobalt output without slashing copper, their primary income source. This geological constraint fuels stockpiling and limits global diversification options.
“Quotas mean producers need to put up with having to stockpile massive amounts… With 70% of global cobalt flowing through the DRC, buyers’ options to diversify are limited,” Waku said. China’s dominance in refining further strengthens this choke point.
A geopolitical lever with human costs
Global investors are increasingly wary. Export restrictions, governance uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions are amplifying price volatility and prompting fund managers to turn to alternatives such as nickel and manganese. Western strategies under the Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act remain nascent.
For policymakers and investors, cobalt is shifting from a commodity to a geopolitical instrument. But the Mulondo collapse underscores a hard truth: leverage without reform is fragile. The DRC’s traceable cobalt ambitions cannot be detached from the safety, dignity, and livelihoods of the workers who extract its most strategic resource.
