Lagos taxi driver Adegbola Isaac went to the gas station twice last weekend. Each time, the price in the Nigerian city had climbed further, reaching 1,350 naira ($0.99) per litre, a nearly 35% increase since the Iran war started. That’s wiped out most of his daily profit.
“It is hitting hard,” Isaac told The Associated Press.
Like many people across the world, Isaac is one of millions across Africa who are reeling from the economic impacts of the faraway conflict in the Middle East, which began Feb. 28 with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
For many Africans, the fuel price hike, driven by the Strait of Hormuz being largely closed, worsens the hardships they already face in some of the world’s poorest households.
The latest shock isn’t isolated either.
From the COVID-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine and now the Middle East conflict, the world’s fastest-growing continent — with a population rivaling China and India — is at the painful end of ripple effects that include a global scramble for critical resources like fuel and fertilizer.
With the majority of African countries being net importers of refined oil products, the impact has been swift, leading to rising retail fuel prices in Africa and associated increases in the costs of most goods and services.
Experts say African countries are deeply integrated into global economies and exposed to global shocks due to their dependence on major economies.
The United Nations on Friday said it is pursuing a way to allow fertilizer to resume safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, hoping it would build confidence in wider diplomatic efforts around the war in Iran.
Africa is the epicentre of crises
According to a 2025 report by U.N. Trade and Development, or UNCTAD, which describes Africa as “the epicenter of overlapping global crises,” more than half of the continent’s imports and exports are with five non-African countries.
All of Kenya’s fuel comes from the Middle East, particularly from the United Arab Emirates, with its fuel retailers saying 20% of the country’s outlets are already affected. Uganda’s fuel stock was initially projected to last a few weeks.
South Africa sources a significant amount of its fuel from Saudi Arabia. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, lacks local refinery capacity and relies on importing refined crude products from Europe.
Adapting to higher prices
In Zimbabwe, health labor workers protested for a wage increase as the cost of living rose sharply. In response, the government plans to increase the ethanol content of fuel from the current 5% to 20%. The blend poses a danger to cars, and a higher blend contributes to pollutant emissions.
“I now avoid going into town during peak hours because the fares are too high,” said Washington Nyakarize, an informal cellphone trader who works in Harare’s Central Business District. “If I go later, the charge is a bit lower, but I lose business, because most customers come early in the morning.”
After South Africa’s fuel supplies from Saudi Arabia dropped, diesel-dependent industries started to panic-buy, fearing the worst. That is despite the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, or DMPR, saying the country still has untapped strategic reserves and diversified supply routes.
War is likely to impact more than fuel
Access to fertilizer across Africa, including conflict-wracked countries like Sudan and Somalia, is set to be impacted, according to UNCTAD.
Kenya’s flower industry has also reported weekly losses of up to $1.4 million since the Iran war began, with growers attributing the losses to a decline in demand and shipping disruptions.
Experts say the war could further put Africa in uncharted territory if it lasts longer.
“If the conflict persists for another month or two, honestly, we’re going to be in unknown terrain that no one else, like, no one can really predict, and we just have to wait and see,” said Zainab Usman, a senior research scholar at the New York-based Center on Global Energy Policy.
Governments scramble for alternatives
With the global squeeze in oil supply, African governments have begun to look for alternative routes for supplies.
Bloomberg reported this week that several countries, including South Africa, Kenya, and Ghana, have reached out to Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery for fuel deals.
While it regularly exports jet fuel used in aircraft to the U.S. and Asia, the Dangote refinery this week announced that it completed the sale of 12 shipments of refined petroleum products to several African countries, including the Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana, and Togo, a first at that scale since reaching full capacity earlier this year.
Energy experts say the Dangote refinery could struggle to meet growing demand for its products if its planned expansion is slowed or if there are disruptions to its crude oil supply.
“As long as there is a steady supply of crude oil, the (Dangote) refinery has the capacity to meet some of the needs” from across the continent, according to Olufola Wusu, a Lagos-based oil and gas expert who was part of a team that helped review Nigeria’s national gas policy.
