Russia has no intention of launching a military attack on any NATO state this year or next, but is racing to rebuild its forces as Europe steps up its rearmament, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service said in its annual report on Tuesday.
The NATO member, which borders Russia, has been one of Moscow’s sharpest critics and a strong supporter of Ukraine.
“(Europe) must invest in defence and internal security, so that…in the future Russia would conclude it has no chance against NATO countries,” the head of the service, Kaupo Rosin, told reporters.
“We see that the Russian leadership is very concerned about…European rearmament, they see that Europe might be able to conduct independent military action against Russia in two to three years,” said Rosin. Russia’s goal now is to “delay and hinder” this, he added.
Ammunition production is expanding so rapidly that Russia will be able to stockpile supplies for future wars while continuing to fight in Ukraine, the intelligence service said.
Any Russian attack on Estonia would involve drones “on land, in the air and at sea, simultaneously across Estonia’s entire territory,” it added.
Relations With the Trump Administration
The Estonian intelligence service said the Kremlin continues to regard the U.S. as its principal global adversary, while feigning readiness to cooperate to secure the removal of U.S. sanctions.
“This change stemmed from the Kremlin’s ambition to exploit the new U.S. administration to restore bilateral relations and pursue a settlement that would formalise Ukraine’s defeat,” it said.
“Despite this illusory thaw, Russia’s aims remain unchanged: it seeks to marginalise the United States and NATO and to reshape Europe’s security architecture according to Moscow’s vision,” it added.
It said China sees a useful ally in Russia to marginalise the West, and a source of energy if a conflict with Taiwan leads to sanctions or a maritime blockade. The countries share military technology research.
“Any concessions made to Russia would, in effect, also fuel China’s global ambitions,” the report said.
