With the New Patriotic Party (NPP) set to elect its presidential candidate on Saturday, 31 January, fresh polling data from the National Security Secretariat indicates that the former vice president and the party’s 2024 presidential candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, enters the contest as the clear front-runner.
According to the polls, Dr Bawumia commands 56 per cent support among delegates. His closest challenger, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, trails in a distant second with 25 per cent, while Bryan Acheampong, Member of Parliament for Abetifi and former Minister of Agriculture, follows with 12 per cent.
The National Security polls further indicate that Dr Bawumia is projected to win in all regions across the country, with the sole exception of the Central Region, where he places a close second to Mr Agyapong.
The survey also suggests that about 5 per cent of delegates remain undecided, with the remaining 2 per cent split between former Education Minister and MP for Bosomtwi, Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum, and former NPP General Secretary, Kwabena Agyapong.
The results, which appear broadly consistent with some internal and external surveys, point to a drop in support for both top two candidates, compared to the party’s last presidential primaries held on 4 November 2023.
In that contest, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia won the New Patriotic Party’s presidential nomination with 118,210 votes, representing 61.47 per cent of the total valid votes cast. His closest challenger, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, then the Assin Central Member of Parliament, secured 71,996 votes (37.41 per cent). Former Minister for Agriculture, Dr Owusu Afriyie Akoto, polled 1,459 votes (0.76 per cent), while former Mampong MP, Francis Addai-Nimoh, obtained 781 votes, representing 0.41 per cent.
If the current figures hold, both leading candidates from 2023 are projected to record a decline in their respective vote shares, an outcome analysts largely attribute to the entry of Bryan Acheampong into the race.
Since declaring his presidential ambition in July last year, Dr Acheampong appears to be drawing support from both the Bawumia and Agyapong camps, positioning himself as a significant factor in shaping the final outcome of the contest.
Meanwhile, projections shared by the Bryan Acheampong campaign with Asaase News diverge sharply from the National Security polls and most other surveys. According to figures shared by his team, based on what it describes as extensive profiling of a majority of delegates, Dr Acheampong is projected to secure 37 per cent of the vote, with Dr Bawumia following closely at 34 per cent and Mr Agyapong in third place with 20 per cent. The campaign projects about 7 per cent of delegates remaining undecided.
Political analysts caution, however, that the final outcome could still be influenced by last-minute campaigning, which may sway undecided delegates as well as soft supporters. Some suggest this late momentum could either push Dr Bawumia’s share as high as 65 per cent or, less likely, force the contest into a runoff.
There is also speculation that a segment of delegates may favour a runoff, viewing it as an opportunity for further engagement with candidates and intensified campaigning.
The NPP primaries, involving more than 211,000 delegates voting at 277 polling centres nationwide, are set to be the largest in the party’s history. The outcome is widely seen as pivotal in shaping the opposition party’s direction as it prepares for the 2028 general elections.
