Morocco expects economic growth to accelerate to 4.2% at the start of 2026, supported by agriculture and services, even as weak European demand and tighter regulations weigh on exports.
The economy is projected to grow by 4.2% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, up from 4% in the final quarter of 2025, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
“Overall, national economic growth is expected to reach 4.2% in the first quarter of 2026, year on year, after 4% in the previous quarter. This slight acceleration would essentially be driven by agricultural and tertiary activities,” the HCP said.
Domestic demand is expected to remain the backbone of the outlook. Authorities see it strengthening on the back of improved farm output, easing inflationary pressures, and sustained public investment in infrastructure.
The HCP linked the anticipated rebound in agriculture to better weather conditions at the start of the season, noting that cumulative rainfall rose by 57% in the first two months of the 2025–2026 agricultural campaign.
Combined with new government support measures for farmers, the improvement is expected to boost rural employment and household incomes.
Household consumption is forecast to grow by 3.9% in the first quarter of 2026. Investment is set to remain robust, expanding by 9.8%, driven largely by continued public spending on infrastructure projects.
Tourism and services provide lift
Services are also expected to play a stabilising role in Morocco’s growth trajectory. The country welcomed 19.8 million international tourists in 2025, a 14% increase from 2024 and above the government’s target of 18 million, the Ministry of Tourism said in early January.
In the first 11 months of last year, tourism revenue exceeded $13 billion, up 19% year on year.
The recently concluded Africa Cup of Nations is expected to provide an additional short-term boost.
According to estimates from the Barcelona-based Sport Business Institute, the tournament generated about $192.6 million in revenue, with more than two-thirds of that coming from sponsorship.
The event is expected to support hospitality, transport, and leisure-related sectors.
Manufacturing activity, however, is likely to remain under pressure. Industrial output is projected to grow by 3.1%, with performance constrained by softer external demand and volatility in export markets. Construction activity is expected to expand by 3.4%, recovering after slowing toward the end of 2025.
The external environment remains a key risk. The HCP said Morocco entered 2026 facing “a combination of external and structural shocks,” citing persistently weak demand from Europe, its main trading partner.
Morocco posted some of its strongest economic growth in recent years in 2025.
Expansion accelerated from 3.7% in the final quarter of 2024 to 4.8% in the first quarter of 2025, before peaking at 5.5% in the second quarter — the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2021.
Growth later cooled to 4% in the third quarter, a pace the HCP expects to be maintained in the final quarter of 2025.
