We’re in the middle of one of the Premier League’s most dramatic and tightest title races, but did it swing back in leaders Arsenal‘s favour on Saturday?
The Gunners went six points clear of Manchester City with a 3-0 win over Fulham, and have just three league games left this season.
Pep Guardiola’s second-placed side have five, having played two games fewer, but know there is very little room for error in the fight to be champions.
Five-time Premier League winner Wayne Rooney believes Arsenal are now the definitive favourites to end their 22-year title wait, while former City keeper Joe Hart expects his old club to be triumphant.
Defeats by Bournemouth and City, coupled with a victory for Guardiola’s men at Burnley, had knocked the Gunners off top spot two weeks ago for the first time in 209 days.
But Arsenal have since beaten Newcastle and Fulham - either side of their Champions League semi-final first-leg draw at Atletico Madrid.
They have survived a ridicule-filled fortnight, which included a fan going viral for drinking from a water bottle labeled ‘Arsenal tears’ and City striker Erling Haaland calling the Gunners boring on Snapchat.
And Opta now gives them 79.7% chance of being champions for the first time since 2004.
The title could also be settled on goal difference, or even goals scored.
So Arteta will be thrilled on his side, who have won 10 games by a one-goal margin this season and been criticized for their cautious performances, scored three unanswered goals on Saturday.
In extending their goal difference advantage over City to four, it felt like Arsenal’s 1-0 win was an all-out attack.
“I think the team played incredibly well,” added Arteta.
“We dominated and showed the hunger we discussed before the game.
“I’m extremely happy. It was a really tough match to play. We came back to Madrid very late on Thursday. We gave so much in that match and had to play a team in good form.”
One of the reasons Opta’s calculations favour Arsenal so heavily is their favourable run-in.
After their Champions League return tie against Atleti on Tuesday, they visit strugglers West Ham next Saturday, face relegated Burnley at home on 18 May, before travelling to Crystal Palace in the final game on 24 May.
Manchester City visit Everton on Monday, before taking on sixth-placed Brentford away, Crystal Palace at home, eighth-placed Bournemouth away, and Aston Villa, currently in fifth spot, at home on the final day.
Who wins the title remains anyone’s guess, but Rooney told BBC Match of the Day the Gunners will be lifting the trophy and even predicted it could be by a “comfortable five points”.
“I think Arsenal will win it,” he said. “The fixtures are more favourable. I think they will win every game, and Man City will slip up.
“I can see Arsenal being quite comfortable. They have been fantastic and top of the league most of the season. City’s fixtures are all quite congested.”
Hart, though, disagrees.
A two-time title winner with City in 2012 and 2014, he said, “I don’t care who Arsenal will lose to, I look at Man City, and their spine is so long.
“It is full of multiple winners like Gianluigi Donnarumma. I am talking about Rodri, Bernardo [Silva], and Haaland. That is the spine I want to be part of. I think they will do whatever needs to be done.”
Meanwhile, reacting to Arsenal‘s win on Saturday, former Gunners forward Paul Merson told Sky Sports: “In his wildest dreams Arteta could not have asked for anything better.
“If Arsenal win their next three Premier League matches, Man City will have to pull up trees.
“They are always playing catch-up, and that takes its toll in the end, knowing you have to win games just to stay in it.
“I would pick Arsenal just because of the fixtures they have. I expect both teams to win all their games, and I think it will come down to goal difference.”
Former England midfielder Jamie Redknapp added on Sky Sports: “If it goes to goal difference, I see Arsenal have the big advantage when you look at the games.
“But we are all guessing. Man City could blow teams away; anything could happen. I think Arsenal are the favourites, but not 80% favourites.
“For City, the games are coming thick and fast, and Mikel can look after his players just that little bit more.”
